Documentation summary for astrology case study #MH370. #ripMH370

May all of them be at a better place. Heartfelt condolence to the families and friends of #MH370. 

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Summary as at 21 March 2014

Your Prediction : -

Moon that signify water, running at it's own cycle at exalted placement of Taurus makes it significant that the plane ended in Water. Rahu being "foreign" will indicate it ended in Foreign Water, not in Malaysia vicinity.

A flight had landed in the water

. A plane suddenly in deep water.

News / Reports : -

U.S. officials have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

Young also said the depth of the Indian Ocean in the particular location could not be determined yet.

“It could be several thousand metres deep but I can’t confirm on this now,” he said.

Keywords : -

water, foreign water , deep sea

Your Prediction:-

Placement/direction : Could be in South-west, or West side.
Mars Retro aspect Taurus sign, significant of Body. Down to earth.
Combinations will give the following keywords: Fiery, fiery body part, moving in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.

News/ Reports : -

Investigators also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

But the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on the other side of Malaysia.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff.

Keywords :-

South-West / West

Fiery, fiery body part, moving in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.

Your Prediction: -

The above tragedy is shroud in mystery. Late timing in rescue effort reduce chances of survival. Earliest rescue effort will have positive result. However, too many other combination translated to efforts dampens with plenty of  challenges resulting in plenty of death. (Jupiter residing / natal at Gemini 8th house)

News/ Reports:-

None at the moment

Keywords:-

Plenty of death, late timing

Your prediction

full discovery of the plane will be latest by before April 12th 2014. Fastest discovery and information on search and rescue operation should be by 19th March 2014 next Wednesday.

News / Reports:-

It is believed that the objects were spotted by the satellite on March 16,

Yet to know the progress by April 12^th, 2014

Keywords:-

Full discovery = 12 April 2014

Fastest discover / info = 19^th March 2014

THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 2014

#MH370 - Astrology analysis - case study

The search for #MH370 had indeed baffled the world and experts in the aviation industry  in view of the current era where technology are so advance, how can a Boeing 777 that is so huge can be missing from the radar? The search have to continue nevertheless, without giving up hope and grab any possibilities that can effect a successful SAR operation.

I have also noticed, that not many or even maybe a single astrologer from Malaysia is saying anything, probably due to fear of repercussion from the public or later found stuffs said not to be correct, I mean, those famous ones as am not famous...or maybe I have not been noticing as I just like to hide in the closet (shrug), so I am not scared to post! It is because in my opinion, no point if you say something after the plane is found, for astrologer are suppose to do predictions after evaluation on the available data.

This post that am posting, is just a perspective and scholar approach using Vedic Astrology with the additional 3 saturnine planets from Western Astrology that I wish to put down for study purpose. It is not meant to affirm a result as I am no expert in any SAR bodies nor an airplane expert as well. And of course, Astrology is a module of probabilities using the position of the stars and planets in astronomy and it is a system that can be approached scientifically and spiritually depending on the astrologer specific niche. It is a module that have stood the test of time over 6000 years and it does not need your belief system to work for with or without your belief system, it is a standalone system that still works to this days.

And before I go and do the analysis, it's definitely not bomoh or shaman works here! (referring to the Raja Bomoh) . Shaman, pagans and spiritual healers are people who works with nature and spirits of the world for the betterment and healing of humankind in the universe and they are most of the time do not go into the limelight or work for money. The very Bomoh we know carries the Corporate 1Malaysia Bomoh title in the news. "Corporate" sounds very wrong for an authentic Shaman! Just my opinion, will I get shoot down??? I hope not, as for as much as I might disagree with what you say, I will defend to death your right to say it.

Okay, there might be some astrology jargon and keywords, but I have to use it as it is what my study is about. I have to use some combinations/configurations so as to support the story statements, but I will try to put it into laymen words as well.  

The above chart is used base on the take off time and date of MH370. (FYI, the data are also being used by astrologers from overseas) Okay, am not very good with graphics as I am a "word" person, so I am thinking as I am typing so bear with me. And, the above chart is very basic chart. The working configurations and unseen on chart above is due to ...is very tedious for a non graphic person like me to put it up for you to see, especially if you are not an astrologer. But an astrologer will know the placements and other details.

Significant placement:
As = Ascendent = 1st house (this is where the houses kickstart)
Symbolic planets for airplanes: Uranus
Symbolic signs for airplanes: Aquarius and Gemini (Air sign)
Symbolic house for travel: 3rd and 9th house
Symbolic sign for travel: Sagittarius
Symbolic planet for travel: Mercury

Transit/period:
Running Dasa/Bukti : Mo/Ra (Moon/Rahu)
Moon symbolic for Water and emotions. Moon is running in it's own cycle/period

Moon is at the 7th house of the chart, sitting at the sign of Taurus, it's own exalted place. If the first house is use as the starting point of the chart as in "Take off for MH370", 7th house which is the opposition will indicate where it ends.

Moon that signify water, running at it's own cycle at exalted placement of Taurus makes it significant that the plane ended in Water. Rahu being "foreign" will indicate it ended in Foreign Water, not in Malaysia vicinity.

Placement/direction : Could be in South-west, or West side.
Mars Retro aspect Taurus sign, significant of Body. Down to earth.
Combinations will give the following keywords: Fiery, fiery body part, moving in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.

Evaluation of these keywords produce the following prediction:
The take off of MH370, met with Body mechanical failure, most possibly from the wing to storage keeping area (Mars profession) and it landed in a foreign water/sea in the direction of south-west/west side (South China Sea/western area of the sea??). It descend in an aggressive, fast and aimless pattern to a dark region/dark side. (It is impossible to hang in the mid air as what goes up must come down, as above so below, and Law of Gravity on Earth)

Supporting combination and configuration from other house:
1) 4th house (death/end) where Neptune is residing at Aquarius. Neptune a water planet is residing at Aquarius, an air sign. A flight had landed in the water.
Further to this, Sun is also natal/residing at the fourth house, ruler of the 10th house. The sun symbolic of govt, went to the 4th house. Further prediction: Government in "deep water" because of this unfortunate event.

2) Uranus - sudden events, symbolic for plane, at the sign of Pisces, deep water. A plane suddenly in deep water.
Jupiter aspecting this place, with the keyword Plenty. plenty of water, plenty of death.

As the plane is traveling just a short distance before it got lost in the radar, it would be appropriate to look at the 3rd house for short distance travel indicator.

There is Mercury and Venus in the house of Capricorn. Capricorn house is ruled by Saturn planet and Saturn is retrograde at the 12th house of losses and mysteries. Systematic prediction will be ruler of the 3rd house for short distance travel is now at 12th house of losses. 12th house is also symbolic for longer distance travel beside 9th house.

12th house natal sitting Saturn, Mars and Ra, all malefic planets together. Venus, ruler of 12th house exchanged position with Ruler of 3rd house Saturn as well, which makes it more significant on short distance travel with losses.

Might want to take a look at the weather, although it was reported fine weather. Mercury and Venus is combination for a cutting/splitting effect. Sitting at Capricorn, a "moving" element house, mercury also carries keywords of wind. Venus in Capricorn will create a strong attachment effect. What type of windy elements can fuel the fiery plane? Or is it relevant? This combination might not be a strong astrology point for this. So let's see other supporting combination. Mercury carries keywords of mechanical as well as communication. So if weather is not a strong point, then communication keyword will be more suitable. This Capricorn placement is further aspected by malefic Mars, making it a very bad combination.

Evaluation of the above will come to the prediction of: Heart (Venus keyword) of communication, breakdown at a very fast pace in the plane.

Okay...now let's look at the dusthana houses of 2nd, 6th, 8th and 12th. Except 6th, all are death houses. Sad to say, the survival chances are close to zero. Unless with divine intervention and TIMING for miracles, no one survive.  Why?

2nd house (death) , Sagittarius (travel), sitting/residing Pluto - planet of death and rejuvenation.  Pluto is sitting on a house ruled by Saturn, and Lord Saturn is at 12th house of losses and death and mystery. Pluto is also aspected by Saturn and it is a retrogade Saturn. Saturn is also keyword for timing. Jupiter is also aspecting it, with the keyword Plenty.

6th house with ketu - destructive/not working/head part.Again, Mars and Saturn is aspecting the 6th house.
Head part of the plane not working/in fire/destructed/pilot in difficult working position.

8th house
Evaluation of the above leads to these predictions:
The above tragedy is shroud in mystery. Late timing in rescue effort reduce chances of survival. Earliest rescue effort will have positive result. However, too many other combination translated to efforts dampens with plenty of  challenges resulting in plenty of death. (Jupiter residing / natal at Gemini 8th house)

Higher combination: Information/Gemini house ruler Mercury, messages/communications regarding the flight, (Mercury in 3rd house), 3rd house ruler Saturn in 12th house : Prediction = Plenty of information regarding the flight are in mystery or unknown

12th house...a cluster of malefic planet at the house of death..enough said...

It was reported that MH370 was fixed/service/repaired 12 days before the flight. I made a chart on it and it seems that the astrology configuration pointed to repairs during Mercury Retrograde period. Could there be failure/mistakes/negligance from the ground team while repair and testing is done? In my personal opinion, I do not discount this possibility base on the chart.

And this below chart is the day the plane was delivered to KL after it's first flight on 14th of May. In my opinion, this plane looks like a doomed plane, looking that the period is Ma/Me/Mo in the dasa bukti bukti period of now it is in, and Ma is at the 12th house, Mer is retrogade together with other malefics again in the houses. It means this plane itself might have other accidents before too, but of course duly repaired.  Astrologers can double check...as am bad with the graphics part.

The below chart is base on the last contact and latitude and longitude coordination of the plane. I put it as Vietnam timing as it is supposedly approaching Vietnam.

As from the chart, our government despite the communications and information issues and the amateur handling of crisis of this scale/nature, they are working hard on it. No one would wish these things to happen at all. However, just to note that, timing is of essence and the govt here, however, is responsible for the time lost. Government in astrology terms would mean the ones in charge, the head of an organization, governors etc, and thus those involved ie MAS and the Government bear this "Time response and responsibility"

Other notes: I wished there are hijacks, stuck at other dimensions or kidnapped by aliens. However, I can't see from the astrology chart for these. It is because, if above are the case, there will be chances for survivors.

So when can it be found? Base on the timing part, full discovery of the plane will be latest by before April 12th 2014. Fastest discovery and information on search and rescue operation should be by 19th March 2014 next Wednesday. I am doing this prediction base on the timing factor that I know of. There is already a famous astrologer predicting that we will be able to find it by or before this Saturday which is 15th of March 2014.

Whichever date it is, my wish and prayers  is for it to be found as soon as possible. Last but not least, as mentioned earlier above, it is still possible for divine intervention. 

Objects found the best lead yet on MH370

S Retnanathan

 | March 20, 2014

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority also cautions that objects found may not be related to the missing plane.

PETALING JAYA: The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) today said the objects found in the Indian Ocean, some 2,500km southwest of Perth, is credible enough for them to divert search and rescue teams of MH370 to the area.

“But we can’t yet say that the objects found is from the plane. We received satellite imaginary of the objects and after a review of our experts we feel we need to investigate it further. It may not be related to the missing plane,” AMSA’s emergency response general manager John Young said in a press conference in Canberra a few minutes ago. It is believed that the objects were spotted by the satellite on March 16, four days ago.

He said the objects were found in the southern part of Australia in the vicinity of the search and rescue area for MH370 which went missing on March 8. The Boeing 777-200ER jetliner went missing an hour into its flight form the Kuala Lumpur International Airport to Beijing, China.

It was carrying 239 passengers and crew. The runaway plane was last spotted by civilian radar heading towards Vietnam over the South China Sea. Its transponders which sends signal to air traffic control on the plane’s location was switched from inside the jetliner off soon after last contact was made.

The plane was spotted by the military radar an hour after that heading towards the Andaman Sea, on the western side of peninsula Malaysia. Some 27 nations have joined in the search for the missing plane. Malaysian authorities have said the plane flew in either one of the two routes. One was towards the Indian Ocean while the other was across continental Asia, from northern Thailand to Khazakstan.

The Australian are leading search and rescue operations in the Indian Ocean.

Earlier today, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot told the Australian parliament that search and rescue teams had found two objects which could be from the missing Malaysian airline.

Young said Australia has ordered for more satellite pictures of the area where the objects were found for clarity.

Two Orion and one P8 Poseidon aircraft are being rushed over to the location where the objects were spotted.

The Poseidon aircraft has reached the scene but have yet to send back reports on the find.

The Australian authorities have also flown a C130 Hercules aircraft to the location to drop marker buoys to mark the area.

Credible sightings

“We also have a ship sailing towards the location but it would take some time to reach the place. The ship is to recover any big objects we may find. From the early data, we can confirm that the visibility in the area is low. It may hamper search and rescue operations.

“However a merchant ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by Australia on Monday is expected to arrive in the area later.

“The objects are indistinct. Experts say this are credible sightings. The largest image found is 24 metres. Others are smaller images,” said Young.

He however did not reveal which satellite took the pictures of the objects.

“The image was captured by a satellite passing the area. At the moment, this imaginary could be a debris field. It is credible enough to divert search and rescue operations to the area,” he added.

Young also said the depth of the Indian Ocean in the particular location could not be determined yet.

“It could be several thousand metres deep but I can’t confirm on this now,” he said.

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet

·         BY CHRIS GOODFELLOW

·         03.18.14

·         6:30 AM

Image: Pedro Moura Pinheiro/Flickr

There has been a lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at Pulau Langkawi.

We know the story of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca.

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah¹ was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

 

The loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to the track toward the southwest.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

Ongoing speculation of a hijacking and/or murder-suicide and that there was a flight engineer on board does not sway me in favor of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

We know there was a last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely normal. “Good night” is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control. The “good night” also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.

Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not transmitting.

As for the reports of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even have been diving to extinguish flames.

But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario doesn’t make any good sense to me.

Regarding the additional flying time: On departing Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

 

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible.

The now known continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There is no point speculating further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. There is no doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijacking would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It probably would have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided where they were taking it.

Surprisingly, none of the reporters, officials, or other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint: If something went wrong, where would he go? Thanks to Google Earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.

Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the time.

Chris Goodfellow has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine planes. His theory on what happened to MH370 was first apppeared on Google+. We’ve copyedited it with his permission.

¹CORRECTION 9:40 a.m. Eastern 03/18/14: An editing error introduced a typo in Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s name.

For more on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370:
How It’s Possible to Lose an Airplane in 2014
Inside the Nearly Impossible Task of Finding an Airplane in the Ocean
How the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet Could Have Been Hijacked

Missing Malaysian flight: US officials have 'indication' MH370 crashed into Indian Ocean

USS Kidd moving to the area to begin search

Martha Raddatz, ABC

10:21 AM, Mar 13, 2014

10:21 AM, Mar 13, 2014

U.S. officials have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to begin searching.

It will take another 24 hours to move the ship into position, a senior Pentagon official told ABC News.

"We have an indication the plane went down in the Indian Ocean," the senior official said.

The official said there were indications that the plane flew four or five hours after disappearing from radar and that they believe it went into the water.

The U.S. action came hours after Malaysian officials said they had extended their search into the Andaman Sea and had requested help from India in the search for the missing plane and its 239 passengers.

Investigators also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

But the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on the other side of Malaysia.

“We are working very closely with the FAA and the NTSB on the issue of a possible air turn back,” Hishammuddin said, referring to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board.

“They have indicated to us that based on the information given by the Malaysian authorities, they — being the FAA and NTSB — the U.S. team was of the view that there was reasonable ground for the Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side of the peninsula of Malaysia. Under the circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct the search even if the evidence suggests there is a possibility of finding a minor evidence to suggest that ... the aircraft would have been there.”

Hishammuddin said it was possible the plane kept flying after dropping off of radar. "Of course, this is why we have extended the search," he said.

The Malaysians spent much of today's news conference dismissing earlier leads.

"I’ve heard of many incidents from many sources. Like we have said from the start, we have looked at every lead and in most cases — in fact in all cases — that we have pursued, we have not found anything positive," Hishamuddin said.

He said that pictures of three large objects floating in the South China Sea posted Wednesday on a Chinese government website were not debris from the missing plane.

"A Malaysian maritime enforcement agency surveillance plane was dispatched this morning to investigate potential debris shown on Chinese satellite images. We deployed assets, but found nothing. We have contacted the Chinese Embassy who notified us this afternoon the images were released by mistake and did not show any debris from MH370," he said.

Hishamuddin also dismissed a report by the Wall Street Journal that signals sent by the plane's Rolls Royce engine indicated the plane kept flying for up to five hours. He didn't dispute the plane could have kept flying, but said Rolls Royce did not receive any signals from the engine after it vanished from radar.

Earlier in the search, two oil slicks were determined to not be from the plane and an orange object thought to be part of the plane's door was investigated and found to be unrelated.

All you need to know about MH370: facts, timelines, systems, findings, theories

Mar 20 2014 - 4 Comments

By David Cenciotti

Let’s try to summarize all what is known to date about the mysterious MH370 flight.

This post contains a complete review of all the Malaysia Airlines 370 story, with new and revised details, update data and findings.

Facts

1) MH370 took off normally and headed on course to Beijing as planned. Just before Loss of Contact (LOS) the aircraft turned right to HDG040°. At the time the transponder stopped transmitting, based on ADS-B data, the aircraft was flying at FL350.

2) MH370 was following the usual route to Beijing.

3) Based on reports, the weather in the area was good.

4) The last ACARS transmission was 01:07AM local.

5) Reports surfaced yesterday that the aircraft either: turned westwards before the last voice transmission – or- entered two new waypoints in the FMS (see ADS-C section).

6) The last radio comms were “All right, good night” transmitted to Malaysia Air Traffic Control at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer’s voice. Although it is not a standard phraseology reply, the “good night”, “ciao”, “au revoir” etc way to greet ATC at hand-off is quite common and, per se, it does not constitute any evidence of something wrong in the cockpit.

7) The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21AM LT.

8) There are reports of a climb to 45,000 ft, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. However, this changes are based on primary radar, and altitude data is uncertain at that distance from radar.

9) According to the Malaysian authorities, there were subsequent primary radar returns to the west of the Malaysian peninsula, over the Strait of Malacca Strait and then north west. This is assumed to be a real return from MH370 even if based on primary radar echo.

10) SATCOM (see below for details) satellite system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)

11) SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength latency, satellite height, it is possible to draw arcs (of a circumference centered on the satellite with radius = distance from the satellite) where the last ping may have been located. The arcs identify a series of points at the same distance from the satellite and are located along two directions, the first is north from Andaman Sea to Turkmenistan; whereas the second is south, over the Indian Ocean from southwest Malaysia to southwest of Australia. The last primary radar reply came from a point that is coherent with the northern arc.

12) The last SATCOM ping replied by the aircraft reportedly was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north arc and light over the south arc.

13) SATCOM pings are hourly – so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped ‘pinging’: the aircraft onboard systems could reply to ping (for more details read below) even if the aircraft had landed, while it is difficult to believe they could reply after crashing.

14) A pilot of another plane in the air when the aircraft failed to contact Vietnamese control, heard a weird “mumble” or noise seemingly coming from a stuck microphone from MH370 but there is no way to confirm this.

15) According to the Malaysian PM, the way the aircraft has flown since LOS make investigators believe it was a deliberate action.

16) Reports of sightings in Maldives, landing in China etc have been debunked. Thailand has admitted to have possibly tracked the plane after LOS some 10 days after the disappearance.

17) All the previous alleged sightings of the aircraft debris (Chinese satellite images, Greek ship reports, Tomnod crowdsourcing initiative etc) did not find anything that could be related to the missing plane.

18) Based on satellite imagery collected on Mar. 16, search and rescue aircraft, including a P-8A are investigating possible debris located 2,300 km to the southwest of Perth, Australia.

Timeline

1.07 am – Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am – Last verbal communication “All right, good night” from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am – Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am – Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am – Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am – Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am – Last (hourly) satellite handshake

ACARS

ACARS is the acronym for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. It’s an automated communication system used by commercial planes to transmit and receive messages from ground facilities (airline, maintenance department, aircraft or system manufacturer, etc). Therefore, along with the general information about the flight (callsign, speed, altitude, position, etc), these messages may contain what we can consider systems health checks.

ACARS is a service: airlines have to pay for it. According to the information available to date, it looks like Malaysia Airlines subscribed only to engine health monitoring that enabled MH370 to send data to Rolls Royce.

The ACARS system aboard MH370 last trasmission was at 01:07 LT.

However, it has emerged on Mar. 18, that last trasmission included new way-points that were possibly entered before the loss of contact, using the FMS. This would require ADS-C (see below).

ACARS rely on VHF frequencies (indeed, you can track planes and decode messages with a simple radio receiver tuned on the proper ACARS frequencies and a software running on your computer) or SATCOM (SATellite COMmunication).

Although this is still debated, according to several pilots the ACARS transmissions can be switched off by the pilot from inside the cockpit, by disabling the use of VHF and SATCOM channels. This means that the system is not completely switched off, but it can’t transmit to the receiving stations.

SATCOM

SATCOM is a radio system that uses a constellation of satellites used to trasmit voice, data or both. As said, ACARS can make use of SATCOM to transmit its data to ground stations. Dealing with ACARS, the SATCOM system used by MH370 was linked to the INMARSAT network.

Inmarsat is a British satellite telecommunications company, which offers global, mobile services through a constellation of three geostationary satellites.

The system relies on “pings”.

Ping

A Ping is a quite common term for IT Networking. It refers to a utility used to test the reachability of a host on an IP network and measure the round-trip time (RTT) of the packets even if it is more frequently associated to the data messages themselves, or “pings”.

Similarly to what happens on a Local Area Network, satellites send pings (once a hour) to their receiving peers that respond to it thus signaling their network presence. Hence, these pings are no more than simple probes used to check the reachability of SATCOM systems aboard the planes.

Based on details recently disclosed, the last response to a satellite ping, was sent by the SATCOM aboard MH370 at 08.11AM Malaysia time, some 7 hours past the loss of contact with the Boeing 777.

From the analysis of the time between request and response it is possible to work out the distance of the plane which is a circumference of certain radius from the satellite based on which, two possible arcs containing all the final points were drawn by the investigators.

ADS-C

ADS-C stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance – Contract. It is a dependent system (depending on the aircraft using it) that sends information based on a “contract” agreed by the controllers and crew. Information can include altitudes, estimates, coordinate for next waypoints and subsequent waypoint.

ADS-C can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be initiated by the crew in an emergency.

Based on the revelations that the waypoint past the point of LOS were known to the authorities, it can be assumed that either, ACARS report at 1:07 included the “Predicted Route Group” or that they just meant that the path followed by MH370 was seemingly flown automatically, as if the plane’s primary radar tracks match with waypoints on a published airway.

ADS-C is transmitted via ACARS (which, as said, can use SATCOM, VHF or HF channels).

ELT

ELT – Emergency Locator Transmitter. It is a battery powered system that transmits on the guard frequency (121.5 MHz on VHF and on 406MHz to satellites. If can’t transmit from under water.

Mobile Phones

Although this topic is quite debated, reports say that no cell phone belonging to people on board registered with network towers. This may depend on the altitude the aircraft, the route (above the sea), or the fact that they were either seized to passengers or these were unconscious hence unable to switch them on.

Pressurization / Hypoxia

Cabin pressurization can be regulated by the pilots. This means that cabin could be depressurized to the airplane’s current altitude using manual pressurization.

In the event of the reported climb to 45,000 feet (determined based on primary radar – hence, to be confirmed), masks would deploy providing passengers Oxygen for 12 to 2o minutes (usually, just the time required to descend to below 10,000 feet). After that, passengers would lose consciousness and, at some point, the would die. Pilots O2 lasts more.

The same effect would be achieved at much lower altitudes: the main difference would be that the death would arrive earlier at higher altitude (45K above the aircraft max altitude).

Theories

There are so many active theories that is almost impossible to list them all. We’ll try to list the most significant ones. Please consider that a “composite theory” made by hijacking and subsequent failure is possible as well. We will not consider such mixed theories.

Anyway, the main question here is: did the aircraft suffer an in-flight emergency or not? Although this author still believes that the aircraft was diverted from its initial planned route by a pre-planned action, the possibility it experienced a catastrophic emergency can’t be completely ruled out. Still, it seems to me a bit far fetched that the B777 suffered a failure that disabled the transponder, radio, ACARS, etc. but (possibly) let the plane capable to fly (on autopilot?) for 7 hours.

Hijacking

The aircraft is hijacked. Then it crashes after 7 hours for fuel starvation.

Based on the current information, this is a likely scenario. Hijacking may have been attempted by one of the pilots, then fighting occurred, one or both might be wounded and unable to complete the diversion to another country, the asylum request as happened for Ethiopian flight last month, or his terrorist attack.

It looks like the theory that passengers with stolen passports could be involved in a hijacking attempt was debunked.

Fire

Fire in the cockpit or cabin.

As mentioned before, fire in the cockpit that would selectively disable some aircraft communication systems but didn’t prevent the aircraft from flying is unlikely.

Progressive series of failure

First failure forces pilots to turn then other issues arise until the aircrew and passengers succumb and the aircraft crashes for fuel starvation.

As above, fire or smoke in the cockpit that would either selectively disable some aircraft communication systems or make aircrew unable to react, without affecting the aircraft’s capability to fly (most probably under FMS inputs) is unlikely.

Attempted landing at divert field

System failure or failure aboard. The incapacitated pilot points the aircraft towards the coast to land at Langawi but then fly until fuel starvation and crashes.

Unlikely, for the same reasons mentioned above plus the fact that a pilot trying to land at nearest airport would not switch off transponder.

Aircraft stolen

The aircraft was hijacked and moved in some rogue state to be used for future terrorist attacks.

Aircraft must be hijacked, secretly flown to a secret location escaping radar detection in the shadow of a larger plane, then landed on an unprepared, hidden landing field. Passengers killed or moved elsewhere. Quite unlikely, considered the maneuver to join another aircraft enroute, but not impossible.

Subscenario: passengers kidnapped for ransom: unlikely, because no claim nor ransom request after all these days.

Subscenario 2: passengers kidnapped for their skill and know how.

Subscenario 3: cargo stolen. Cargo manifest doesn’t list anything special and would you organize such a risky operation just to steal the plane’s cargo. Unlikely.

On board systems hacked/aircraft remotely flown

Malware was installed on the aircraft onboard systems. It enabled remote access to hackers that maneuvered the plane.

Although hacking an aircraft system is theoretically possible, it seems that shutting off some of the onboard systems leaving no time for the crew to use any emergency one is a bit too much. Even if the possibility to hack remotely piloted aircraft is actual, it would require a massive operation to use satellites to give inputs to the aircraft once under remote control. Such operation would leave traces (on satellites, for instance).

Aircraft shot down

The aircraft is hijacked, is turning towards a sensitive target. It is shot down.

We’ve extensively discussed it here. Unlikely. Even less likely, considered where search forces are currently focusing.

Suicide

One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide

It can’t be ruled out but it seems unlikely, considered where the aircraft could have crashed. There are no messages left behind by pilots.

Subscenario: the pilot decided to do something about Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s opposition leader. First he disables the systems, turns the aircraft west out of radar and cell phone range, then, using a satellite phone, contacts PM and demands they reverse the Anwar conviction (or some other demand) or he will crash the plane.

Conclusions

An airworthy aircraft disappered from radars and stopped communicating with Air Traffic Control at the boundary between Malay and Vietnamese ACC areas of responsibility.

For reasons we still don’t know the aircraft radio systems did not work while the plane flew westwards back towards Malaysia.

Even if information was uncoherent and sometimes contradictory, we know for certain that military radars in both Malaysia and Thailand saw the plane.

In spite of all the disabled onboard systems, satellite got a signal of presence of the aircraft for each hour until 8:11AM LT, +7 hours after take off.

For several days, search efforts focused on the wrong area.

The aircraft wreckage was not found but searches in the South Indian Ocean have been intensified. US sources pointed to the Indian Ocean since the beginning. USS Kidd moved there few days after the aircraft disappeared.

This incident could cause some aviation procedures to change to reflect the inability of authorities to react to hijacking attempts conducted by experienced crew members (regardless of the fact one of the pilots will be found guilty or not).

H/T to all my visitors and readers for providing tons of information and hints. A big thank you for the help by Airliners.net staff member “rcair1″ who filed an almost daily summary with the latest findings on A.net. His Sanity Checks helped shed some light on tecnical and non-technical details.

Image credit: Reuters/Jason Lee, Washington Post, Australian Governement