May all of them be at a better place. Heartfelt condolence to the families and friends of #MH370.
____________________________________________________________
Summary as
at 21 March 2014
Your Prediction : -
Moon that signify water,
running at it's own cycle at exalted placement of Taurus makes it significant
that the plane ended in Water. Rahu being "foreign" will indicate it
ended in Foreign Water, not in Malaysia vicinity.
A flight had landed in the
water
. A plane suddenly in deep
water.
News
/ Reports : -
U.S.
officials have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner
may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to
begin searching.
Young also said the depth of the Indian Ocean in
the particular location could not be determined yet.
“It could be several thousand metres deep but I
can’t confirm on this now,” he said.
Keywords : -
water, foreign water , deep
sea
Your Prediction:-
Placement/direction : Could be
in South-west, or West side.
Mars Retro aspect Taurus sign, significant of Body. Down to earth.
Combinations will give the following keywords: Fiery, fiery body part, moving
in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.
News/
Reports : -
Investigators
also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the
waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines
plane.
Malaysian
Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has
always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the
plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
But
the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on
the other side of Malaysia.
For me, the loss of transponders and communications
makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In
the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore
circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the
busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the
flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the
fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such
situations.
There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or
may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the
timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it
blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with
underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run
takeoff.
Keywords
:-
South-West
/ West
Fiery,
fiery body part, moving in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.
Your Prediction: -
The above tragedy is shroud in mystery. Late timing in rescue effort
reduce chances of survival. Earliest rescue effort will have positive result.
However, too many other combination translated to efforts dampens with plenty
of challenges resulting in plenty of death. (Jupiter residing / natal at
Gemini 8th house)
News/ Reports:-
None at the moment
Keywords:-
Plenty of death, late timing
Your prediction
full discovery of the plane will be latest by before April 12th 2014.
Fastest discovery and information on search and rescue operation should be by
19th March 2014 next Wednesday.
News / Reports:-
It is
believed that the objects were spotted by the satellite on March 16,
Yet to know the progress by April 12th,
2014
Keywords:-
Full
discovery = 12 April 2014
Fastest
discover / info = 19th March 2014
THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 2014
The search for #MH370 had indeed
baffled the world and experts in the aviation industry in view of the
current era where technology are so advance, how can a Boeing 777 that is so
huge can be missing from the radar? The search have to continue nevertheless,
without giving up hope and grab any possibilities that can effect a successful
SAR operation.
I have also noticed, that not many or even maybe a single astrologer from
Malaysia is saying anything, probably due to fear of repercussion from the
public or later found stuffs said not to be correct, I mean, those famous ones
as am not famous...or maybe I have not been noticing as I just like to hide in
the closet (shrug), so I am not scared to post! It is because in my opinion, no
point if you say something after the plane is found, for astrologer are suppose
to do predictions after evaluation on the available data.
This post that am posting, is just a perspective and scholar approach using
Vedic Astrology with the additional 3 saturnine planets from Western Astrology
that I wish to put down for study purpose. It is not meant to affirm a result
as I am no expert in any SAR bodies nor an airplane expert as well. And of
course, Astrology is a module of probabilities using the position of the stars
and planets in astronomy and it is a system that can be approached
scientifically and spiritually depending on the astrologer specific niche. It
is a module that have stood the test of time over 6000 years and it does not
need your belief system to work for with or without your belief system, it is a
standalone system that still works to this days.
And before I go and do the analysis, it's definitely not bomoh or shaman works
here! (referring to the Raja Bomoh) . Shaman, pagans and spiritual healers are
people who works with nature and spirits of the world for the betterment and
healing of humankind in the universe and they are most of the time do not go
into the limelight or work for money. The very Bomoh we know carries the
Corporate 1Malaysia Bomoh title in the news. "Corporate" sounds very
wrong for an authentic Shaman! Just my opinion, will I get shoot down??? I hope
not, as for as much as I might disagree with what you say, I will defend to
death your right to say it.
Okay, there might be some astrology jargon and keywords, but I have to use it
as it is what my study is about. I have to use some combinations/configurations
so as to support the story statements, but I will try to put it into laymen
words as well.
The above chart is used base on the take off time and date of MH370. (FYI, the
data are also being used by astrologers from overseas) Okay, am not very good
with graphics as I am a "word" person, so I am thinking as I am
typing so bear with me. And, the above chart is very basic chart. The working configurations
and unseen on chart above is due to ...is very tedious for a non graphic person
like me to put it up for you to see, especially if you are not an astrologer.
But an astrologer will know the placements and other details.
Significant placement:
As = Ascendent = 1st house (this is where the houses kickstart)
Symbolic planets for airplanes: Uranus
Symbolic signs for airplanes: Aquarius and Gemini (Air sign)
Symbolic house for travel: 3rd and 9th house
Symbolic sign for travel: Sagittarius
Symbolic planet for travel: Mercury
Transit/period:
Running Dasa/Bukti : Mo/Ra (Moon/Rahu)
Moon symbolic for Water and emotions. Moon is running in it's own cycle/period
Moon is at the 7th house of the chart, sitting at the sign of Taurus, it's own
exalted place. If the first house is use as the starting point of the chart as
in "Take off for MH370", 7th house which is the opposition will
indicate where it ends.
Moon that signify water,
running at it's own cycle at exalted placement of Taurus makes it significant
that the plane ended in Water. Rahu being "foreign" will indicate it
ended in Foreign Water, not in Malaysia vicinity.
Placement/direction :
Could be in South-west, or West side.
Mars Retro aspect Taurus sign, significant of Body. Down to earth.
Combinations will give the following keywords: Fiery, fiery body part, moving
in non direct motion, aimlessly, driven.
Evaluation of these keywords produce the following prediction:
The take off of MH370, met with Body mechanical failure, most possibly from the
wing to storage keeping area (Mars profession) and it landed in a foreign
water/sea in the direction of south-west/west side (South China Sea/western
area of the sea??). It descend in an aggressive, fast and aimless pattern to a
dark region/dark side. (It is impossible to hang in the mid air as what goes up
must come down, as above so below, and Law of Gravity on Earth)
Supporting combination and configuration from other house:
1) 4th house (death/end) where Neptune is residing at Aquarius. Neptune a water
planet is residing at Aquarius, an air sign. A flight had landed in the water.
Further to this, Sun is also natal/residing at the fourth house, ruler of the
10th house. The sun symbolic of govt, went to the 4th house. Further
prediction: Government in "deep water" because of this unfortunate
event.
2) Uranus - sudden events, symbolic for plane, at the sign of Pisces, deep
water. A plane suddenly in
deep water.
Jupiter aspecting this place, with the keyword Plenty. plenty of water, plenty
of death.
As the plane is traveling just a short distance before it got lost in the
radar, it would be appropriate to look at the 3rd house for short distance
travel indicator.
There is Mercury and Venus in the house of Capricorn. Capricorn house is ruled
by Saturn planet and Saturn is retrograde at the 12th house of losses and
mysteries. Systematic prediction will be ruler of the 3rd house for short
distance travel is now at 12th house of losses. 12th house is also symbolic for
longer distance travel beside 9th house.
12th house natal sitting Saturn, Mars and Ra, all malefic planets together.
Venus, ruler of 12th house exchanged position with Ruler of 3rd house Saturn as
well, which makes it more significant on short distance travel with
losses.
Might want to take a look at the weather, although it was reported fine
weather. Mercury and Venus is combination for a cutting/splitting effect.
Sitting at Capricorn, a "moving" element house, mercury also carries
keywords of wind. Venus in Capricorn will create a strong attachment effect.
What type of windy elements can fuel the fiery plane? Or is it relevant? This
combination might not be a strong astrology point for this. So let's see other
supporting combination. Mercury carries keywords of mechanical as well as communication.
So if weather is not a strong point, then communication keyword will be more
suitable. This Capricorn placement is further aspected by malefic Mars, making
it a very bad combination.
Evaluation of the above will come to the prediction of: Heart (Venus keyword)
of communication, breakdown at a very fast pace in the plane.
Okay...now let's look at the dusthana houses of 2nd, 6th, 8th and 12th. Except
6th, all are death houses. Sad to say, the survival chances are close to zero.
Unless with divine intervention and TIMING for miracles, no one survive.
Why?
2nd house (death) , Sagittarius (travel), sitting/residing Pluto - planet of
death and rejuvenation. Pluto is sitting on a house ruled by Saturn, and
Lord Saturn is at 12th house of losses and death and mystery. Pluto is also
aspected by Saturn and it is a retrogade Saturn. Saturn is also keyword for
timing. Jupiter is also aspecting it, with the keyword Plenty.
6th house with ketu - destructive/not working/head part.Again, Mars and Saturn
is aspecting the 6th house.
Head part of the plane not working/in fire/destructed/pilot in difficult
working position.
8th house
Evaluation of the above leads to these predictions:
The above tragedy is shroud in
mystery. Late timing in rescue effort reduce chances of survival. Earliest
rescue effort will have positive result. However, too many other combination
translated to efforts dampens with plenty of challenges resulting in
plenty of death. (Jupiter residing / natal at Gemini 8th house)
Higher combination: Information/Gemini house ruler Mercury,
messages/communications regarding the flight, (Mercury in 3rd house), 3rd house
ruler Saturn in 12th house : Prediction = Plenty of information regarding the
flight are in mystery or unknown
12th house...a cluster of malefic planet at the house of death..enough said...
It was reported that MH370 was fixed/service/repaired 12 days before the
flight. I made a chart on it and it seems that the astrology configuration
pointed to repairs during Mercury Retrograde period. Could there be
failure/mistakes/negligance from the ground team while repair and testing is
done? In my personal opinion, I do not discount this possibility base on the
chart.
And this below chart is the day the plane was delivered to KL after it's first
flight on 14th of May. In my opinion, this plane looks like a doomed plane,
looking that the period is Ma/Me/Mo in the dasa bukti bukti period of now it is
in, and Ma is at the 12th house, Mer is retrogade together with other malefics
again in the houses. It means this plane itself might have other accidents
before too, but of course duly repaired. Astrologers can double
check...as am bad with the graphics part.
The below chart is base on the last contact and latitude and longitude coordination
of the plane. I put it as Vietnam timing as it is supposedly approaching
Vietnam.
As from the chart, our government despite the communications and information
issues and the amateur handling of crisis of this scale/nature, they are
working hard on it. No one would wish these things to happen at all. However,
just to note that, timing is of essence and the govt here, however, is
responsible for the time lost. Government in astrology terms would mean the
ones in charge, the head of an organization, governors etc, and thus those
involved ie MAS and the Government bear this "Time response and
responsibility"
Other notes: I wished there are hijacks, stuck at other dimensions or kidnapped
by aliens. However, I can't see from the astrology chart for these. It is
because, if above are the case, there will be chances for survivors.
So when can it be found? Base on the timing part, full discovery of the plane will be latest by before April
12th 2014. Fastest discovery and information on search and rescue operation
should be by 19th March 2014 next Wednesday. I am doing this prediction
base on the timing factor that I know of. There is already a famous astrologer
predicting that we will be able to find it by or before this Saturday which is
15th of March 2014.
Whichever date it is, my wish and prayers is for it to be found as soon
as possible. Last but not least, as mentioned earlier above, it is still
possible for divine intervention.
Objects found the best lead yet on MH370
|
March 20, 2014
The Australian
Maritime Safety Authority also cautions that objects found may not be related
to the missing plane.
PETALING JAYA: The
Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) today said the objects found in the
Indian Ocean, some 2,500km southwest of Perth, is credible enough for them to
divert search and rescue teams of MH370 to the area.
“But we can’t yet say
that the objects found is from the plane. We received satellite imaginary of
the objects and after a review of our experts we feel we need to investigate it
further. It may not be related to the missing plane,” AMSA’s emergency response
general manager John Young said in a press conference in Canberra a few minutes
ago. It is believed that
the objects were spotted by the satellite on March 16, four days ago.
He said the objects
were found in the southern part of Australia in the vicinity of the search and
rescue area for MH370 which went missing on March 8. The Boeing 777-200ER
jetliner went missing an hour into its flight form the Kuala Lumpur
International Airport to Beijing, China.
It was carrying 239
passengers and crew. The runaway plane was last spotted by civilian radar
heading towards Vietnam over the South China Sea. Its transponders which sends
signal to air traffic control on the plane’s location was switched from inside
the jetliner off soon after last contact was made.
The plane was spotted
by the military radar an hour after that heading towards the Andaman Sea, on the western side of peninsula
Malaysia. Some 27 nations have joined in the search for the missing
plane. Malaysian authorities have said the plane flew in either one of the two
routes. One was towards the Indian Ocean while the other was across continental
Asia, from northern Thailand to Khazakstan.
The Australian are
leading search and rescue operations in the Indian Ocean.
Earlier today,
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot told the Australian parliament that search
and rescue teams had found two objects which could be from the missing
Malaysian airline.
Young said Australia
has ordered for more satellite pictures of the area where the objects were
found for clarity.
Two Orion and one P8
Poseidon aircraft are being rushed over to the location where the objects were
spotted.
The Poseidon aircraft
has reached the scene but have yet to send back reports on the find.
The Australian
authorities have also flown a C130 Hercules aircraft to the location to drop
marker buoys to mark the area.
Credible sightings
“We also have a ship
sailing towards the location but it would take some time to reach the place.
The ship is to recover any big objects we may find. From the early data, we can
confirm that the visibility in the area is low. It may hamper search and rescue
operations.
“However a merchant
ship that responded to a shipping broadcast issued by Australia on Monday is
expected to arrive in the area later.
“The objects are
indistinct. Experts say this are credible sightings. The largest image found is
24 metres. Others are smaller images,” said Young.
He however did not
reveal which satellite took the pictures of the objects.
“The image was
captured by a satellite passing the area. At the moment, this imaginary could
be a debris field. It is credible enough to divert search and rescue operations
to the area,” he added.
Young also said the depth of the Indian Ocean in
the particular location could not be determined yet.
“It could be several thousand metres deep but I
can’t confirm on this now,” he said.
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing
Malaysia Airlines Jet
·
BY CHRIS
GOODFELLOW
·
03.18.14
·
6:30 AM
Image: Pedro Moura
Pinheiro/Flickr
There has been a
lot of speculation about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. Terrorism, hijacking,
meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN; it’s almost disturbing. I tend
to look for a simpler explanation, and I find it with the 13,000-foot runway at
Pulau Langkawi.
We know the story
of MH370: A loaded Boeing 777 departs at midnight from Kuala Lampur, headed to
Beijing. A hot night. A heavy aircraft. About an hour out, across the gulf
toward Vietnam, the plane goes dark, meaning the transponder and secondary
radar tracking go off. Two days later we hear reports that Malaysian military
radar (which is a primary radar, meaning the plane is tracked by reflection
rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a
southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of
Malacca.
The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah1 was
a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old
pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in
cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us.
They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be
thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to
do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he
was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a
13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain
did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to
cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was
closer.
The loss of
transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire.
When I heard this I
immediately brought up Google Earth and searched for airports in proximity to
the track toward the southwest.
For me, the loss of transponders and communications
makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In
the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits
one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the
plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was
occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate,
navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.
There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be
as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However
there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one
of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning.
Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night,
sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known
accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on
takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke.
Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most
have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few
minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag,
and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)
What I think
happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on
the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the
fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that
route–looking elsewhere is pointless.
Ongoing speculation of a hijacking and/or
murder-suicide and that there was a flight engineer on board does not sway me
in favor of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.
We know there was a
last voice transmission that, from a pilot’s point of view, was entirely
normal. “Good night” is customary on a hand-off to a new air traffic control.
The “good night” also strongly indicates to me that all was OK on the flight
deck. Remember, there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress. A hijack
code or even transponder code off by one digit would alert ATC that something
was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike always is an
option. Even three short clicks would raise an alert. So I conclude that at the
point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the
pilots.
But things could
have been in the process of going wrong, unknown to the pilots.
Evidently the ACARS went
inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy, as pointed out.
This leads me to believe more in an electrical problem or an electrical fire than a manual
shutdown. I suggest the pilots probably were not aware ACARS was not
transmitting.
As for the reports
of altitude fluctuations, given that this was not transponder-generated data
but primary radar at maybe 200 miles, the azimuth readings can be affected by a
lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally
reliable. But let’s accept for a minute that the pilot may have ascended to
45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level
of oxygen. That is an acceptable scenario. At 45,000 feet, it would be tough to
keep this aircraft stable, as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of
control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its
operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been
generated by a stall, followed by a recovery at 25,000 feet. The pilot may even
have been diving to extinguish flames.
But going to 45,000 feet in a hijack scenario
doesn’t make any good sense to me.
Regarding the additional flying time: On departing
Kuala Lampur, Flight 370 would have had fuel for Beijing and an alternate
destination, probably Shanghai, plus 45 minutes–say, 8 hours. Maybe more. He
burned 20-25 percent in the first hour with takeoff and the climb to cruise. So
when the turn was made toward Langkawi, he would have had six hours or more
hours worth of fuel. This correlates nicely with the Inmarsat data pings being received until fuel
exhaustion.
Fire in an aircraft
demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible.
The now known
continued flight until time to fuel exhaustion only confirms to me that the
crew was incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian
ocean.
There is no point speculating
further until more evidence surfaces, but in the meantime it serves no purpose
to malign pilots who well may have been in a struggle to save this aircraft
from a fire or other serious mechanical issue. Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah
was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to
Langkawi. There is no doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and
direct route. A hijacking would not have made that deliberate left turn with a
direct heading for Langkawi. It probably would have weaved around a bit until
the hijackers decided where they were taking it.
Surprisingly, none
of the reporters, officials, or other pilots interviewed have looked at this
from the pilot’s viewpoint: If something went wrong, where would he go? Thanks
to Google Earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how
long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport.
He had probably flown there many times.
Fire in an aircraft
demands one thing: Get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are
two well-remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed, I
believe, in Columbus, Ohio in the 1980s. That pilot delayed descent and
bypassed several airports. He didn’t instinctively know the closest airports.
He got it on the ground eventually, but lost 30-odd souls. The 1998 crash of
Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were
15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire overcame them and they had to ditch in the
ocean. They simply ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the
aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what? The transponders and
communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.
Get on Google Earth
and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track
heading. Two plus two equals four. For me, that is the simple explanation why
it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. He just didn’t have the
time.
Chris Goodfellow has 20 years
experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine
planes. His theory on what happened to MH370 was first apppeared on Google+. We’ve copyedited
it with his permission.
1CORRECTION 9:40
a.m. Eastern 03/18/14: An editing error introduced a typo in Capt. Zaharie
Ahmad Shah’s name.
Missing Malaysian flight:
US officials have 'indication' MH370 crashed into Indian Ocean
USS
Kidd moving to the area to begin search
Martha Raddatz, ABC
10:21 AM, Mar 13, 2014
10:21 AM, Mar 13, 2014
U.S.
officials have an "indication" the missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner
may have crashed in the Indian Ocean and is moving the USS Kidd to the area to
begin searching.
It will take another 24 hours to move
the ship into position, a senior Pentagon official told ABC News.
"We have an indication the plane
went down in the Indian Ocean," the senior official said.
The official said there were
indications that the plane flew four or five hours after disappearing from
radar and that they believe it went into the water.
The U.S. action came hours after
Malaysian officials said they had extended their search into the Andaman Sea
and had requested help from India in the search for the missing plane and its
239 passengers.
Investigators
also said today that U.S. officials gave them reasons to keep searching the
waters west of Malaysia, far from the flight path of the Malaysia Airlines
plane.
Malaysian
Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said that the search’s “main focus has
always been in the South China Sea,” which is east of Malaysia and along the
plane’s route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
But
the search was extended earlier this week to include water far to the west on
the other side of Malaysia.
“We are working very closely with the
FAA and the NTSB on the issue of a possible air turn back,” Hishammuddin said,
referring to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and National
Transportation Safety Board.
“They have indicated to us that based
on the information given by the Malaysian authorities, they — being the FAA and
NTSB — the U.S. team was of the view that there was reasonable ground for the
Malaysian authorities to deploy resources to conduct search on the western side
of the peninsula of Malaysia. Under the circumstances, it is appropriate to
conduct the search even if the evidence suggests there is a possibility of
finding a minor evidence to suggest that ... the aircraft would have been
there.”
Hishammuddin said it was possible the
plane kept flying after dropping off of radar. "Of course, this is why we
have extended the search," he said.
The Malaysians spent much of today's
news conference dismissing earlier leads.
"I’ve heard of many incidents
from many sources. Like we have said from the start, we have looked at every
lead and in most cases — in fact in all cases — that we have pursued, we have
not found anything positive," Hishamuddin said.
He said that pictures of three large
objects floating in the South China Sea posted Wednesday on a Chinese
government website were not debris from the missing plane.
"A Malaysian maritime
enforcement agency surveillance plane was dispatched this morning to
investigate potential debris shown on Chinese satellite images. We deployed
assets, but found nothing. We have contacted the Chinese Embassy who notified
us this afternoon the images were released by mistake and did not show any
debris from MH370," he said.
Hishamuddin also dismissed a report
by the Wall Street Journal that signals sent by the plane's Rolls Royce engine
indicated the plane kept flying for up to five hours. He didn't dispute the
plane could have kept flying, but said Rolls Royce did not receive any signals
from the engine after it vanished from radar.
Earlier in the search, two oil slicks
were determined to not be from the plane and an orange object thought to be
part of the plane's door was investigated and found to be unrelated.
All you need to know about MH370: facts, timelines,
systems, findings, theories
Let’s try to summarize all what is known to date
about the mysterious MH370 flight.
This
post contains a complete review of all the Malaysia Airlines 370 story, with
new and revised details, update data and findings.
Facts
1)
MH370 took off normally and headed on course to Beijing as planned. Just before
Loss of Contact (LOS) the aircraft turned right to HDG040°. At the time the
transponder stopped transmitting, based on ADS-B data, the aircraft was flying
at FL350.
2)
MH370 was following the usual route to Beijing.
3)
Based on reports, the weather in the area was good.
4)
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07AM local.
5)
Reports surfaced yesterday that the aircraft either: turned westwards before
the last voice transmission – or- entered two new waypoints in the FMS (see
ADS-C section).
6)
The last radio comms were “All right, good night” transmitted to Malaysia Air
Traffic Control at hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It
has been reported it was the First Officer’s voice. Although it is not a
standard phraseology reply, the “good night”, “ciao”, “au revoir” etc way to
greet ATC at hand-off is quite common and, per se, it does not constitute any
evidence of something wrong in the cockpit.
7)
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21AM LT.
8)
There are reports of a climb to 45,000 ft, uneven descent and some changes in
altitude. However, this changes are based on primary radar, and altitude data
is uncertain at that distance from radar.
9)
According to the Malaysian authorities, there were subsequent primary radar
returns to the west of the Malaysian peninsula, over the Strait of Malacca
Strait and then north west. This is assumed to be a real return from MH370 even
if based on primary radar echo.
10)
SATCOM (see below for details) satellite system pings continued for 7+ (last
ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
11)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal
strength latency, satellite height, it is possible to draw arcs (of a circumference
centered on the satellite with radius = distance from the satellite) where the
last ping may have been located. The arcs identify a series of points at the
same distance from the satellite and are located along two directions, the
first is north from Andaman Sea to Turkmenistan; whereas the second is south,
over the Indian Ocean from southwest Malaysia to southwest of Australia. The
last primary radar reply came from a point that is coherent with the northern
arc.
12)
The last SATCOM ping replied by the aircraft reportedly was at 8:11 am
Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north arc and light over
the south arc.
13)
SATCOM pings are hourly – so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the
aircraft stopped ‘pinging’: the aircraft onboard systems could reply to ping
(for more details read below) even if the aircraft had landed, while it is
difficult to believe they could reply after crashing.
14)
A pilot of another plane in the air when the aircraft failed to contact
Vietnamese control, heard a weird “mumble” or noise seemingly coming from a
stuck microphone from MH370 but there is no way to confirm this.
15)
According to the Malaysian PM, the way the aircraft has flown since LOS make
investigators believe it was a deliberate action.
16)
Reports of sightings in Maldives, landing in China etc have been debunked.
Thailand has admitted to have possibly tracked the plane after LOS some 10 days
after the disappearance.
17)
All the previous alleged sightings of the aircraft debris (Chinese satellite
images, Greek ship reports, Tomnod crowdsourcing initiative etc) did not find
anything that could be related to the missing plane.
18)
Based on satellite imagery collected on Mar. 16, search and rescue aircraft,
including a P-8A are investigating possible debris located 2,300 km to the
southwest of Perth, Australia.
Timeline
1.07 am – Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am – Last verbal communication “All right, good night” from the plane;
believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am – Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am – Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am – Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am – Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am – Last (hourly) satellite handshake
ACARS
ACARS
is the acronym for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting
System. It’s an automated
communication system used by commercial planes to transmit and receive messages
from ground facilities (airline, maintenance department, aircraft or system
manufacturer, etc). Therefore, along with the general information about the
flight (callsign, speed, altitude, position, etc), these messages may contain
what we can consider systems health checks.
ACARS
is a service: airlines have to pay for it. According to the information
available to date, it looks like Malaysia Airlines subscribed only to engine
health monitoring that enabled MH370 to send data to Rolls Royce.
The
ACARS system aboard MH370 last trasmission was at 01:07 LT.
However,
it has emerged on Mar. 18, that last trasmission included new way-points that
were possibly entered before the loss of contact, using the FMS. This would
require ADS-C (see below).
ACARS
rely on VHF frequencies (indeed, you can track planes and decode messages with
a simple radio receiver tuned on the proper ACARS frequencies and a software
running on your computer) or SATCOM (SATellite COMmunication).
Although
this is still debated, according to several pilots the ACARS transmissions can
be switched off by the pilot from inside the cockpit, by disabling the use of
VHF and SATCOM channels. This means that the system is not completely switched
off, but it can’t transmit to the receiving stations.
SATCOM
SATCOM
is a radio system that uses a constellation of satellites used to trasmit
voice, data or both. As said, ACARS can make use of SATCOM to transmit its data
to ground stations. Dealing with ACARS, the SATCOM system used by MH370 was
linked to the INMARSAT network.
Inmarsat
is a British satellite telecommunications company, which offers global, mobile
services through a constellation of three geostationary satellites.
The
system relies on “pings”.
Ping
A
Ping is a quite common term for IT Networking. It refers to a utility used to
test the reachability of a host on an IP network and measure the round-trip time
(RTT) of the packets even if it is more frequently associated to the data
messages themselves, or “pings”.
Similarly
to what happens on a Local Area Network, satellites send pings (once a hour) to
their receiving peers that respond to it thus signaling their network presence.
Hence, these pings are no more than simple probes used to check the
reachability of SATCOM systems aboard the planes.
Based
on details recently disclosed, the last response to a satellite ping, was sent
by the SATCOM aboard MH370 at 08.11AM Malaysia time, some 7 hours past the loss
of contact with the Boeing 777.
ADS-C
ADS-C
stands for Aircraft Dependent Surveillance – Contract. It is a dependent system
(depending on the aircraft using it) that sends information based on a
“contract” agreed by the controllers and crew. Information can include
altitudes, estimates, coordinate for next waypoints and subsequent waypoint.
ADS-C
can be programed to report periodically, on demand, on event. It can be
initiated by the crew in an emergency.
Based
on the revelations that the waypoint past the point of LOS were known to the
authorities, it can be assumed that either, ACARS report at 1:07 included the
“Predicted Route Group” or that they just meant that the path followed by MH370
was seemingly flown automatically, as if the plane’s primary radar tracks match
with waypoints on a published airway.
ADS-C
is transmitted via ACARS (which, as said, can use SATCOM, VHF or HF channels).
ELT
ELT
– Emergency Locator Transmitter. It is a battery powered system that transmits
on the guard frequency (121.5 MHz on VHF and on 406MHz to satellites. If can’t
transmit from under water.
Mobile
Phones
Pressurization
/ Hypoxia
Cabin
pressurization can be regulated by the pilots. This means that cabin could be
depressurized to the airplane’s current altitude using manual pressurization.
In
the event of the reported climb to 45,000 feet (determined based on primary
radar – hence, to be confirmed), masks would deploy providing passengers Oxygen
for 12 to 2o minutes (usually, just the time required to descend to below
10,000 feet). After that, passengers would lose consciousness and, at some
point, the would die. Pilots O2 lasts more.
The
same effect would be achieved at much lower altitudes: the main difference
would be that the death would arrive earlier at higher altitude (45K above the
aircraft max altitude).
Theories
There
are so many active theories that is almost impossible to list them all. We’ll
try to list the most significant ones. Please consider that a “composite
theory” made by hijacking and subsequent failure is possible as well. We will
not consider such mixed theories.
Anyway,
the main question here is: did the aircraft suffer an in-flight emergency or
not? Although this author still believes that the aircraft was diverted from
its initial planned route by a pre-planned action, the possibility it
experienced a catastrophic emergency can’t be completely ruled out. Still, it
seems to me a bit far fetched that the B777 suffered a failure that disabled
the transponder, radio, ACARS, etc. but (possibly) let the plane capable to fly
(on autopilot?) for 7 hours.
Hijacking
The
aircraft is hijacked. Then it crashes after 7 hours for fuel starvation.
Based
on the current information, this is a likely scenario. Hijacking may have been
attempted by one of the pilots, then fighting occurred, one or both might be
wounded and unable to complete the diversion to another country, the asylum
request as happened for Ethiopian flight last month, or his terrorist attack.
It
looks like the theory that passengers with stolen passports could be involved in a hijacking attempt was
debunked.
Fire
Fire
in the cockpit or cabin.
As
mentioned before, fire in the cockpit that would selectively disable some
aircraft communication systems but didn’t prevent the aircraft from flying is
unlikely.
Progressive
series of failure
First
failure forces pilots to turn then other issues arise until the aircrew and
passengers succumb and the aircraft crashes for fuel starvation.
As
above, fire or smoke in the cockpit that would either selectively disable some
aircraft communication systems or make aircrew unable to react, without affecting
the aircraft’s capability to fly (most probably under FMS inputs) is unlikely.
Attempted
landing at divert field
System
failure or failure aboard. The incapacitated pilot points the aircraft towards
the coast to land at Langawi but then fly until fuel starvation and crashes.
Unlikely,
for the same reasons mentioned above plus the fact that a pilot trying to land
at nearest airport would not switch off transponder.
Aircraft
stolen
The
aircraft was hijacked and moved in some rogue state to be used for future
terrorist attacks.
Subscenario:
passengers kidnapped for ransom: unlikely, because no claim nor ransom request
after all these days.
Subscenario
2: passengers kidnapped for their skill and know how.
Subscenario
3: cargo stolen. Cargo manifest doesn’t list anything special and would you
organize such a risky operation just to steal the plane’s cargo. Unlikely.
On
board systems hacked/aircraft remotely flown
Malware
was installed on the aircraft onboard systems. It enabled remote access to
hackers that maneuvered the plane.
Although
hacking an aircraft system is theoretically possible, it seems that shutting
off some of the onboard systems leaving no time for the crew to use any
emergency one is a bit too much. Even if the possibility to hack remotely
piloted aircraft is actual, it would require a massive operation to use
satellites to give inputs to the aircraft once under remote control. Such
operation would leave traces (on satellites, for instance).
Aircraft
shot down
The
aircraft is hijacked, is turning towards a sensitive target. It is shot down.
We’ve
extensively discussed it here. Unlikely. Even less likely, considered where
search forces are currently focusing.
Suicide
One
of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide
It
can’t be ruled out but it seems unlikely, considered where the aircraft could
have crashed. There are no messages left behind by pilots.
Subscenario:
the pilot decided to do something about Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s opposition
leader. First he disables the systems, turns the aircraft west out of radar and
cell phone range, then, using a satellite phone, contacts PM and demands they
reverse the Anwar conviction (or some other demand) or he will crash the plane.
Conclusions
An
airworthy aircraft disappered from radars and stopped communicating with Air
Traffic Control at the boundary between Malay and Vietnamese ACC areas of
responsibility.
For
reasons we still don’t know the aircraft radio systems did not work while the
plane flew westwards back towards Malaysia.
Even
if information was uncoherent and sometimes contradictory, we know for certain
that military radars in both Malaysia and Thailand saw the plane.
In
spite of all the disabled onboard systems, satellite got a signal of presence
of the aircraft for each hour until 8:11AM LT, +7 hours after take off.
For
several days, search efforts focused on the wrong area.
The
aircraft wreckage was not found but searches in the South Indian Ocean have
been intensified. US sources pointed to the Indian Ocean since the beginning.
USS Kidd moved there few days after the aircraft disappeared.
This
incident could cause some aviation procedures to change to reflect the
inability of authorities to react to hijacking attempts conducted by
experienced crew members (regardless of the fact one of the pilots will be
found guilty or not).
H/T
to all my visitors and readers for providing tons of information and hints. A
big thank you for the help by Airliners.net staff member “rcair1″ who filed an almost daily summary
with the latest findings on A.net. His Sanity Checks helped shed some light on
tecnical and non-technical details.
Image
credit: Reuters/Jason Lee, Washington Post, Australian Governement
